Development and validation of a population-based risk stratification model for severe COVID-19 in the general population.

The shortage of recently approved vaccines against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has highlighted the need for evidence-based tools to prioritize healthcare resources for people at higher risk of severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Although age has been identified as the most important risk factor (particularly for mortality), the contribution of underlying comorbidities is often assessed using a pre-defined list of chronic conditions. Furthermore, the count of individual risk factors has limited applicability to population-based "stratify-and-shield" strategies. We aimed to develop and validate a COVID-19 risk stratification system that allows allocating individuals of the general population into four mutually-exclusive risk categories based on multivariate models for severe COVID-19, a composite of hospital admission, transfer to intensive care unit (ICU), and mortality among the general population. The model was developed using clinical, hospital, and epidemiological data from all individuals among the entire population of Catalonia (North-East Spain; 7.5 million people) who experienced a COVID-19 event (i.e., hospitalization, ICU admission, or death due to COVID-19) between March 1 and September 15, 2020, and validated using an independent dataset of 218,329 individuals with COVID-19 confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), who were infected after developing the model. No exclusion criteria were defined. The final model included age, sex, a summary measure of the comorbidity burden, the socioeconomic status, and the presence of specific diagnoses potentially associated with severe COVID-19. The validation showed high discrimination capacity, with an area under the curve of the receiving operating characteristics of 0.85 (95% CI 0.85-0.85) for hospital admissions, 0.86 (0.86-0.97) for ICU transfers, and 0.96 (0.96-0.96) for deaths. Our results provide clinicians and policymakers with an evidence-based tool for prioritizing COVID-19 healthcare resources in other population groups aside from those with higher exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and frontline workers.

A Web-Based App for Emotional Management During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Platform Development and Retrospective Analysis of its Use Throughout Two Waves of the Outbreak in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Quarantines and nationwide lockdowns implemented for containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic may lead to distress and increase the frequency of anxiety and depression symptoms among the general population. During the nationwide lockdown of the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain, we developed and launched a web-based app to promote emotional self-care in the general population and facilitate contact with health care professionals. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe a web-based app and analyze its utilization pattern throughout 2 successive waves of the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain. METHODS: Our web-based app targeted all individuals aged 18 years or more and was designed by adapting the contents of a mobile app for adjuvant treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder (ie, the PTSD Coach app) to the general population and the pandemic or lockdown scenario. We retrospectively assessed the utilization pattern of the web-based app using data systematically retrieved from Google Analytics. Data were grouped into 3 time periods, defined using Joinpoint regression analysis of COVID-19 incidence in our area: first wave, between-wave period, and second wave. RESULTS: The resulting web-based app, named gesioemocional.cat, maintains the navigation structure of the PTSD Coach app, with three main modules: tools for emotional self-care, a self-assessment test, and professional resources for on-demand contact. The self-assessment test combines the Patient Health Questionnaire-2 and the 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale and offers professional contact in the advent of a high level of depression and anxiety; contact is prioritized in accordance with a screening questionnaire administered at the time of obtaining individual consent to be contacted. The tools for emotional self-care can be accessed either on-demand or symptom-driven. The utilization analysis showed a high number of weekly accesses during the first wave. In this period, press releases regarding critical events of the pandemic progression and government decisions on containment measures were followed by a utilization peak, irrespective of the sense (ie, positive or negative) of the information. Positive information pieces (eg, relaxation of containment measures due to a reduction of COVID-19 cases) resulted in a sharp increase in utilization immediately after information release, followed by a successive decline in utilization. The second wave was characterized by a lower and less responsive utilization of the web-based app. CONCLUSIONS: mHealth tools may help the general population cope with stressful conditions associated with the pandemic scenario. Future studies shall investigate the effectiveness of these tools among the general population-including individuals without diagnosed mental illnesses-and strategies to reach as many people as possible.

Performance of Three Measures of Comorbidity in Predicting Critical COVID-19: A Retrospective Analysis of 4607 Hospitalized Patients.

BACKGROUND: Comorbidity burden has been identified as a relevant predictor of critical illness in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, comorbidity burden is often represented by a simple count of few conditions that may not fully capture patients' complexity. PURPOSE: To evaluate the performance of a comprehensive index of the comorbidity burden (Queralt DxS), which includes all chronic conditions present on admission, as an adjustment variable in models for predicting critical illness in hospitalized COVID-19 patients and compare it with two broadly used measures of comorbidity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data from all COVID-19 hospitalizations reported in eight public hospitals in Catalonia (North-East Spain) between June 15 and December 8 2020. The primary outcome was a composite of critical illness that included the need for invasive mechanical ventilation, transfer to ICU, or in-hospital death. Predictors including age, sex, and comorbidities present on admission measured using three indices: the Charlson index, the Elixhauser index, and the Queralt DxS index for comorbidities on admission. The performance of different fitted models was compared using various indicators, including the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCC). RESULTS: Our analysis included 4607 hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Of them, 1315 experienced critical illness. Comorbidities significantly contributed to predicting the outcome in all summary indices used. AUC (95% CI) for prediction of critical illness was 0.641 (0.624-0.660) for the Charlson index, 0.665 (0.645-0.681) for the Elixhauser index, and 0.787 (0.773-0.801) for the Queralt DxS index. Other metrics of model performance also showed Queralt DxS being consistently superior to the other indices. CONCLUSION: In our analysis, the ability of comorbidity indices to predict critical illness in hospitalized COVID-19 patients increased with their exhaustivity. The comprehensive Queralt DxS index may improve the accuracy of predictive models for resource allocation and clinical decision-making in the hospital setting.

Turning the Crisis Into an Opportunity: Digital Health Strategies Deployed During the COVID-19 Outbreak.

Digital health technologies offer significant opportunities to reshape current health care systems. From the adoption of electronic medical records to mobile health apps and other disruptive technologies, digital health solutions have promised a better quality of care at a more sustainable cost. However, the widescale adoption of these solutions is lagging behind. The most adverse scenarios often provide an opportunity to develop and test the capacity of digital health technologies to increase the efficiency of health care systems. Catalonia (Northeast Spain) is one of the most advanced regions in terms of digital health adoption across Europe. The region has a long tradition of health information exchange in the public health care sector and is currently implementing an ambitious digital health strategy. In this viewpoint, we discuss the crucial role digital health solutions play during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic to support public health policies. We also report on the strategies currently deployed at scale during the outbreak in Catalonia.